Coronavirus: Did Researchers Predict Outbreak in March 2019 Itself?

A new report says that months before Coronavirus started spreading and turned deadly, four Chinese researchers had warned of the same as early as March 2019 itself that it would originate from bats and there was an increased probability that this would happen in China.

The article by Yi Fan, Kai Zhao, Zheng Li Shi and Peng Zhou titled ‘Bat coronaviruses in China’ was published by MDPI journal in March 2019. The team stressed on the investigation of bat coronaviruses to detect early warning signs and thus minimise the impact of such outbreaks in China in future.

According to the researchers, three zoonotic coronaviruses caused SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and SADS (Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome) in two decades and the agents originated from bats; two of them originated in China. Since both SARS and SADS were caused by coronaviruses of bat origin in China, the study underlined the need to study bat coronaviruses to understand their potential of causing another virus outbreak. Information from past epidemiology studies on bat coronaviruses in China, including the virus species identified, the host species and their geographical distribution were collected during the review.

“Chinese food culture maintains that live slaughtered animals are more nutritious and this belief may enhance viral transmission. It is generally believed that bat-borne coronaviruses will reemerge to cause the next disease outbreak and China is a likely hotspot. The challenge is to predict when and where to prevent such outbreaks,” article says.

A special chapter ‘Why China’ in the article lists the various reasons as to how China could witness another major outbreak due to coronavirus. The study says that most bat hosts live near humans, potentially transmitting the viruses to humans and livestock.