Lifting Lockdown In India Will Lead To 2 Potential Scenarios, Says Analysis

With the rise in cases and death in the country, India is among 15 high-risk countries where relaxing of lockdowns could lead to a rise in new infections.

With this rise in infection, a situation of extreme case could lead to stringent curbs being re-imposed, an analysis by securities research firm Nomura has said.

"Our visual tool has yielded a mixed bag of results: 17 countries are on track with respect to reopening economies with no sign of a second wave; 13 countries showing some tentative warning signs; and 15 countries in the danger zone of being most at risk of a second wave” the analysis said.

As per the analysis, lifting lockdowns across the world will lead to either of two potential scenarios. 

“In the first (good) scenario, a country or US state experiences a quick recovery in people's mobility. Lockdown measures become relaxed, and businesses resume operations with minimal increases in the number of new daily cases, resulting in an ease in public fear and further increase in people mobility. As the number of new cases declines, a positive feed-back loops kicks in,” the analysis added.

“On the other hand, the second (bad) scenario is characterised by a much ‘flatter’ curve. The reopening of the economy is associated with an acceleration in the number of new daily infections, growing public fear and ceasing people mobility; in extreme cases, lockdowns would be reimposed,” the analysis finally added.

In this analysis, 45 countries are divided into three groups: first are those ‘on track’, second facing ‘warning signs’, while others are in the ‘danger zone’. Looking into India's position, it falls in the danger zone, along with other low-to-middle income countries. 

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has urged countries to increase efforts to contain the virus rather than easing lockdown.

Photo Credit: The Hindu